Trade Idea - Iron Condor on SPY

Disclaimer: The trades discussed in this blog reflect the author's personal strategies and decisions. These are not financial advice and should not be considered recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. The author is not a licensed financial advisor. Options trading carries significant risk, and readers should perform their own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

I know that this is a bold move with the midterm elections today, the jobs report on Friday and the CPI reading early next week, all inside the trade window. The structure answers that calendar: both sides are capped by the wings, so the worst case at expiration is a number I already know before entering. The main appeal for me is that, even if I'm wrong, I won't

The Trade

• Buy the 2026-11-13 $726 put
• Sell the 2026-11-13 $729 put
• Sell the 2026-11-13 $772 call
• Buy the 2026-11-13 $775 call

SPY was trading at $755.66 when I set this up. I logged this as a virtual trade in my trade log at a $1.01 credit, $101 per contract before costs: no real order was sent to the market. By the time of the snapshot below, the package quoted $1.04 bid / $1.09 mid / $1.14 ask (quotes are 20 minutes delayed).

Here's the P/L profile:

And this is the price chart:

The maximum profit is the $101 credit. The maximum loss at expiration is $199, the $3 wing width less the credit, before costs. Breakevens sit at $727.99 and $773.01, about 3.6% below and 2.3% above the current price. These are the numbers at expiration: until then the condor's value moves with the market, and the short options can be assigned early, so the position needs monitoring until it is closed or expires.

The logic is simple: the index has been trading sideways in a broad range for months, and this trade does not need a direction. It keeps the full credit if SPY finishes between the two short strikes at expiration, 3.5% away on the downside and 2% on the upside. With the elections, the jobs report and CPI all inside the window, the next two weeks can move either way; the wings define the worst case at expiration.

As always, the trade is logged in my trade log.