Tracking the UNG expected move helps you see how far United States Natural Gas Fund's options market is pricing the stock to travel over a given period — whether that's the next day, week, or earnings cycle. United States Natural Gas Fund's expected move is derived directly from option premiums and gives you an objective range to plan trades, set strikes, and manage risk. Use our scanner to monitor the UNG expected move for this week's options, in real time.
The expected move is typically calculated from at-the-money straddle prices (or a blend of straddles and strangles) and represents roughly a one-standard-deviation range over the chosen timeframe. For UNG, comparing the implied expected move to actual realized moves over similar windows tells you whether the options market has historically overestimated or underestimated volatility. The UNG expected move for this week's options pricing is especially useful for short-dated traders, earnings players, and anyone selling premium who needs to know where the market thinks United States Natural Gas Fund is unlikely to go.
The fund invests primarily in futures contracts for natural gas that are traded on the NYMEX, ICE Futures Europe and ICE Futures U.S. (together, “ICE Futures”) or other U.S. and foreign exchanges. The Benchmark Futures Contract is the futures contract on natural gas as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange that is the near month contract to expire, except when the near month contract is within two weeks of expiration.
Iron condors, weekly premium sales, directional swing trades — they all live or die by where the market thinks the stock won't go. Our scanner tracks the UNG expected move across every expiration, benchmarks it against realized moves, and shows you when implied ranges are out of line with history. The United States Natural Gas Fund expected move for this week's options is the fastest read on short-term risk, which gives you a quick way to interpret what the options market thinks about UNG.
