Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) Expected Move

Tracking the ARCC expected move helps you see how far Ares Capital Corp's options market is pricing the stock to travel over a given period — whether that's the next day, week, or earnings cycle. Ares Capital Corp's expected move is derived directly from option premiums and gives you an objective range to plan trades, set strikes, and manage risk. Use our scanner to monitor the ARCC expected move for this week's options, in real time.

The expected move is typically calculated from at-the-money straddle prices (or a blend of straddles and strangles) and represents roughly a one-standard-deviation range over the chosen timeframe. For ARCC, comparing the implied expected move to actual realized moves over similar windows tells you whether the options market has historically overestimated or underestimated volatility. The ARCC expected move for this week's options pricing is especially useful for short-dated traders, earnings players, and anyone selling premium who needs to know where the market thinks Ares Capital Corp is unlikely to go.

Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies. It also makes growth capital and general refinancing. It prefers to make investments in companies engaged in the basic and growth manufacturing, business services, consumer products, health care products and services, and information technology service sectors. The fund will also consider investments in industries such as restaurants, retail, oil and gas, and technology sectors. It focuses on investments in Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Southwest regions from its New York office, the Midwest region, from the Chicago office, and the Western region from the Los Angeles office.

The fund typically invests between $20 million and $200 million and a maximum of $400 million in companies with an EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million. It makes debt investments between $10 million and $100 million The fund invests through revolvers, first lien loans, warrants, unitranche structures, second lien loans, mezzanine debt, private high yield, junior capital, subordinated debt, and non-control preferred and common equity. The fund also selectively considers third-party-led senior and subordinated debt financings and opportunistically considers the purchase of stressed and discounted debt positions. The fund prefers to be an agent and/or lead the transactions in which it invests. The fund also seeks board representation in its portfolio companies.

Iron condors, weekly premium sales, directional swing trades — they all live or die by where the market thinks the stock won't go. Our scanner tracks the ARCC expected move across every expiration, benchmarks it against realized moves, and shows you when implied ranges are out of line with history. The Ares Capital Corp expected move for this week's options is the fastest read on short-term risk, which gives you a quick way to interpret what the options market thinks about ARCC.